Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
